Tornado OUTBREAK - Enhanced Risk Storm Chasers

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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – SUNDAY, APRIL 20, 2025
🟠SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Monday

📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (3.4M people): Springfield, MO, Columbia, MO, Fayetteville, AR, Springdale, AR, Conway, AR
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (7.5M people): St. Louis, MO, Shreveport, LA, Little Rock, AR, Springfield, IL, Fort Smith, AR
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (11.5M people): Memphis, TN, Kansas City, MO, Tulsa, OK, Overland Park, KS, Kansas City, KS

🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟧 10% Tornado Risk with Hatched Area (EF2+ potential): Springfield, MO, Columbia, MO, Fayetteville, AR, Springdale, AR, Conway, AR
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: St. Louis, MO, Little Rock, AR, Fort Smith, AR, St. Charles, MO, North Little Rock, AR
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Memphis, TN, Kansas City, MO, Tulsa, OK, Shreveport, LA, Overland Park, KS

What the Percentages Mean
A 10% tornado risk means there's a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point in that area, with potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes.
The 5% and 2% zones still carry credible tornado risk, especially within embedded supercells and bowing segments.

📝 Overview
A severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon and evening from northern Arkansas through central and southern Missouri, including parts of the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Storms will develop along a strengthening low and advancing cold front, with a mix of supercells and bowing line segments.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are all likely, with the highest tornado risk focused across the Ozarks.

⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ Tornadoes likely, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes
💨 Widespread damaging wind gusts, some 60–75+ mph
🧊 Large hail (up to 1.5–2") possible with early discrete storms

🕓 Timeline
🕓 Afternoon (3–6 PM CDT): Storms develop in eastern OK, northwestern AR, and southwestern MO
🌆 Evening (6–10 PM CDT): Tornado risk peaks across the Ozarks and Mid-MO Valley
🌒 Late Evening–Overnight: Convection organizes into a broken line; wind and embedded tornado threat continues into IL, eastern AR, and western TN

📌 Regional Notes
🟧 Ozarks/Mid-MO Valley: Greatest tornado risk due to surface-based storms with strong shear and modest instability
🟡 Lower MS Valley: Hail/wind threats remain, but tornado risk decreases with southern extent
🟢 Mid-MS/IL border region: Storms will persist into the night but may weaken slightly due to lower instability

⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you're in Springfield, Columbia, Fayetteville, or surrounding areas, today is a day to be alert. Strong tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail are all possible.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially into the evening and overnight hours.
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