TREND ANALYSIS FBI US CRIME DATA 1994 - 2013

The data used for this analysis - estimated number of offenses and the rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) of crime in the United States for 1994 through 2013 – was collected by the FBI through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. Because not all law enforcement agencies provide data for complete reporting periods, the FBI includes estimated crime numbers in these datasets. There are 2 crime categories: Property Crime (Burglary, Larceny Theft, and Motor Vehicle Theft) and Violent Crime (Murder manslaughter, Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault). According to the forecast and trend analysis; the violent and property crime rate is bound to decrease over time (the next 7 years) whereas the population seems to increase, i.e, number of inhabitants. From the scatter plot we can analyze the dependencies amongst the relationships. The latter helps us answer questions such as: Are there any real relationships between the crimes? Can one of the crimes serve as a substitute for another? Although the crimes are not directly correlated, I noted as one increases so does the other and vice versa. In 1999, the % difference in both Property and Violent Crimes is at its lowest as compared to the other years represented in the dataset. % Robbery in Violent Crimes is forecasted to remain constant over the next 7 years at 29.517%. On the other hand, the % Auto Theft in Property Crimes is projected to decline to 4.837% in 2020.