The Market Is Loading the Launch Pad ... Here's Why! | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

Elliott wave analysis continues to guide my view of the US markets as price pushes above a key resistance area but pauses in a consolidation that still deserves respect. The S&P 500 has broken out of an ascending triangle, but the follow-through has been modest. As long as price holds above the 690 level, the market remains biased to the upside. That said, the longer we sit here, the more important it becomes to stay disciplined, because a failure back below support would quickly change the picture. This area feels like a launchpad — but until we see a decisive move, caution is still warranted.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:25 - US Market Overview
01:55 - Top Shot Update!
02:47 - SPY
03:08 = VIX
03:51 - TLT
05:30 - CPI Report
06:40 - SPX & Macro Phases
08:00 - SPX & Fed Liquidity
09:00 - SPY
09:34 - TNX
10:22 - US Dollar
10:46 - DIA
12:26 - QQQ
14:28 - IWM
16:37 - GLD
17:12 - SLV
18:18 - BITB
19:18 - ETHW
20:10 - UNG
22:42 - USO
24:05 - TSLA
26:46 - NVDA
28:02 - NFLX
29:08 - RIVN
30:15 - BABA
31:30 - AMD
32:45 - SNDK
33:56 - MU


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Volatility remains subdued, with the VIX stuck near the mid-teens and offering little actionable information. Bonds, however, are far more interesting. Long-dated Treasuries have traced out a classic zigzag pattern and reacted precisely at key Fibonacci levels. The recent bounce in bond prices implies easing pressure on yields, and even a modest pullback in rates can provide momentum for equities. Inflation data came in relatively tame, reinforcing the idea that the economy is moving slowly rather than overheating or collapsing.

Macro phase analysis continues to show expansion in control, albeit at a measured pace. Liquidity conditions remain supportive as the Fed continues to inject liquidity into the system, regardless of whether rate cuts arrive sooner or later. This liquidity backdrop helps explain why equities can remain resilient even when growth headlines are mixed.

Across the major indices, some important differences are emerging. The Dow is pushing into a more extended wave five, increasing the odds of a corrective phase if momentum fades. The Nasdaq is coiling within a well-defined symmetrical triangle, setting the stage for a strong directional move once resolution occurs. Small caps have surged impressively, but are now stretched and would benefit from sideways consolidation before attempting another leg higher.

In metals, gold is pulling back constructively toward its short-term moving averages, offering a potentially favorable risk-reward setup, while silver has already made a powerful vertical run and now looks overextended in the near term. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both approaching critical inflection points, where triangle and wave structures will soon be resolved one way or the other.

On the stock side, Tesla digests gains near major resistance, Nvidia holds an important support zone while deciding its next move, and Netflix remains under pressure due to ongoing acquisition uncertainty. AMD is showing signs of resolving higher from consolidation, while leaders like SanDisk and Micron are displaying classic signs of needing rest after sharp advances.

Overall, this remains a stock-picker’s market. Structure, patience, and risk management matter far more than chasing extended moves, and the best opportunities continue to come from waiting for price to confirm the next direction.