Why Japan’s Elections Could Blow Up Global Bond Markets | Weston Nakamura

In Episode 429 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Weston Nakamura, a Tokyo-based financial analyst and the creator of “Across the Spread,” a market analysis and information service that identifies key market developments from the Asia-Pacific trading session, exploring their impact on equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities across global markets.

Weston recently spoke with members of the Hidden Forces Genius community, helping them make sense of the Japanese elections that took place over the weekend. He explained what the results mean for what he calls “the world’s most dangerous market” and why a new governing coalition made up of Japan’s opposition parties could cause significant dislocations in international bond markets, raising government financing costs and inciting further political turmoil in countries already riled by debates about trade and immigration. This is the audio from that conversation.

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00:00 Introduction
02:55 Weston's Background and Career
05:01 The Unique Nature of Japan's Financial Market
08:21 The World's Most Dangerous Market: JGB
12:50 Impact of JGB Market on Global Markets
21:53 Election Results and Their Implications
25:58 Challenges in Forming a Coalition Government
27:50 BOJ's Dilemma and Election Uncertainty
28:47 Impact on Dollar Yen and JGB Yields
30:04 Consumption Tax Cuts Debate
31:13 Political Dynamics and Coalition Formation
33:29 Inflation and Economic Concerns
34:38 Policy Proposals and Market Impact
41:14 Trade Negotiations and Election Impact
48:23 Lessons for US Policy Makers
50:54 BOJ's Future Policy Direction
53:20 Final Thoughts

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 07/22/2025