Martin van Duin; Applying the event time interval approach to big future

Martin van Duin
PhD in chemistry

Applying the event time interval approach to big future
Plots of time intervals between major events (time) vs. event numbers (event#) have been used to quantitatively corroborate the apparent, qualitative trend of accelerated complexity increase in (big) history. The emphasis of such event time interval studies has been on fitting the time data with appropriate mathematical models and the occurrence of a possible singularity around the present time. The event time interval approach is attractive, because of its simplicity and the impressively linear correlations observed in plots of logarithm of time [log(time)] vs. event#. However, a variety of concerns has been expressed related to the basics underlying this method, which big historians should take to heart. There is no objective definition of a major event nor is there a quantitative criterion for the selection of such an event. There is no sound support for the underlying assumption that all selected events have equal importance. Finally, the event selection is biased from the perspective of today, resulting in an even spread of events over a logarithmic time scale. To further explore these issues, the event time interval approach is here applied to a series of cosmological events, calculated from first principles by Adams & Laughlin in their study “A dying universe”. This series of events starts at the Big Bang, proceeds via the formation and subsequent development and degeneration of stars, planets, galaxies, and black holes, as well as the decay of matter to, eventually, a dark, cool universe. The series of 37 major events span 200 orders of magnitude of time and is mainly situated in the future, hence big future. time increases continuously with cosmological event# both in the past and future, in contrast to previous studies exploring just the past. This corresponds to a continuous deceleration of change and points to a slow “death” of the universe instead of a dramatic singularity. It is most probably the result of the continuously expanding and, thus,
cooling and thinning universe, resulting in a slow-down of cosmological processes. Log(time) increases with event# via three stages, viz. first a S-shaped increase, followed by a linear, relatively flat part though still somewhat increasing, and, finally, an upswing. The two transitions between these three stages are probably the result of two changes, i.e., first from a homogeneous universe to a universe with local heterogeneity, structured matter, and energy-dissipating systems, and, next, to an increasingly homogeneous universe. Alternatively, the three-stage log(time) curve may be interpreted as evidence for a time bias, looking at both the past and future from the present time. As a result, log(time) values are rather small for events in both the near past and future, and then increase for events further away in both the distant past and future. In conclusion, subjective choices of events and human bias cannot be excluded when applying the event time interval approach for both big history and future studies. The most reliable way to corroborate trends in big history is the study of objective, quantitative parameters over time.

https://bighistory.org/