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IMO Dec 10, 2025: Increased Likelihood of an Eruption is ongoing on the Sundhnúkur Crater Row

Magma Accumulation Slow but Steady in Recent Weeks
The magma accumulation process under Svartsengi is still ongoing . In the run-up to eruptions on the Sundhnúkur crater row, the rate of magma accumulation has varied. Looking at the past eruptions, model calculations show that the rate of inflow has gradually decreased with each eruption. Over the past two weeks, however, the rate has remained fairly steady.

As long as magma is accumulating, the likelihood of a dike propagation or an eruption remains elevated. The uncertainty regarding the timing of the next eruption is greater when accumulation is slow. Based on the current accumulation rate, the timing uncertainty spans months.

The Amount of Magma Accumulated Beneath Svartsengi Since the Last Eruption is the Fifth Largest to Date
Measurements and model calculations indicate that since March 2024, the volume of magma required to trigger a new diking event or eruption appears to have increased compared to earlier events. According to the models, the magma volume that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi between eruptions since March 2024 has varied between 17 and 23 million cubic meters. Model calculations now show that just over 17 million cubic meters of magma have been added to the accumulation area beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption in July. This is similar to the volume observed just before the May 2024 eruption.

Seismic Activity
Seismic activity in the area remains low. Twelve small earthquakes have been measured in the last two weeks, located between Stóra-Skógfell and Grindavík.

Hazard Assessment
The Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 6th of January. The IMO continues to closely monitor developments and will update the assessment if activity changes.

Visit: https://en.vedur.is/ for full report

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Volcanic Safety Notice

Volcanoes are powerful and unpredictable. Always follow official guidance and respect restricted areas. Stay on marked trails, keep a safe distance, and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions. Access may be restricted at any time for your safety. Learn how to stay safe during small, medium, and large eruptions by reading the full Volcanic Safety Advice for Tourists here: https://afar.tv/safety.php (based on information provided by ICE-SAR).

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Sources and Resources

Iceland Met Office (https://en.vedur.is/) - data, cameras, news
Iceland Civil Protection and Emergency Management (https://island.is/en/civil-protection) - cameras
Iceland Search and Rescue (https://www.icesar.com/ https://afar.tv/safety.php) - Volcano Safety for Tourists
Windy.com (https://www.windy.com/) - so2 and wind data and maps
RUV (https://www.ruv.is/english) - News
MBL (https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/) - News
VISIR (https://www.visir.is/) - News
Visit Iceland (https://www.visiticeland.com/) - Tourism Info
Lava Centre (https://lavacentre.is/) - Volcano Info
Smithsonian Institute (https://volcano.si.edu/) - Volcanic activity
Google Earth (https://earth.google.com/web/) - maps
USGS (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/)- earthquake data and activity reports
Smithsonian Institute (https://volcano.si.edu/) - Volcanic activity
RaspberryShake.org (https://raspberryshake.org/) - earthquake activity.
VolcanoDiscovery.com (https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/) - Research

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