The Breaking Point: COMEX Has 92M Ounces But Needs 700M To Cover Contracts

December 21, 2025. COMEX registered silver inventory: 92.4 million ounces.
In April 2011, when registered inventory was at 105 million ounces, silver spiked from $33 to $49 in six weeks—a 48% gain.
We are now 12.6 million ounces LOWER than that 2011 trigger level. And this time, everything is different.
In this video I break down:

Current COMEX registered inventory: 92.4 million ounces (verified Dec 21, 2025)
2011 comparison: Inventory was 105M oz when silver spiked 48% in 6 weeks
We are 12% LOWER than 2011 trigger level with 10x the industrial demand
The drain rate: Lost 20.6 million oz in past 6 months (average 850K oz/week)
Timeline projection: 92 weeks until zero at current rate (21 months)
BUT: Heavy delivery months (March, May, July) could compress to 6-12 months
Three critical thresholds: Pressure Zone (90-60M), Crisis Zone (60-30M), Breaking Point (30-0M)
Why 2025 is worse than 2011: Industrial buyers (Samsung, Tesla, solar) can't be margin called
The 2011 playbook: 5 margin hikes in 9 days stopped the squeeze
December 2025 reality: CME raised margins 50% on Dec 18—silver went UP anyway
Why eligible inventory (227M oz) won't save COMEX: Private holders have no incentive to convert
China factor: Imports doubled (112M oz/yr in 2011 → 225M oz/yr in 2025)
Export ban impact: China restricted licenses Nov 28, 2025—metal trapped in Asia
The leverage ratio: 700M oz in paper claims vs 92M oz available = 7.6:1

This is educational analysis only. I'm not a financial advisor. Always DYOR.
Why this matters RIGHT NOW:

We are BELOW 2011 danger level: 92.4M oz today vs 105M oz in 2011
2011 outcome: Silver $33 → $49 (+48%) in 6 weeks before margin hikes killed rally
2025 difference: Buyers are industrial corporations (Samsung battery factory = 50M oz/year, Tesla EVs = 3-6M oz/year, China solar = 420M oz/year)
Margin hikes don't work anymore: Dec 18 CME raised margins 50%, silver rose anyway
Drain accelerating: Past 6 months lost 20.6M oz (June: 113M → Dec: 92.4M)
Recent pace: Past 10 weeks lost 2.6M oz (260K oz/week rate)
Conservative timeline: 92 weeks to zero at 1M oz/week = Sept 2027
Realistic timeline: Major delivery months could drain 5-10M oz each, crisis by mid-2026

The Three Thresholds Explained:
THRESHOLD 1 - PRESSURE ZONE (90-60M oz): ← WE ARE HERE
System stressed but functional. Dealers struggling to source. Premiums elevated ($7-12 over spot). Smart money converting unallocated to allocated. Industrial buyers securing multi-year contracts. Timeline: NOW through mid-2026.
THRESHOLD 2 - CRISIS ZONE (60-30M oz):
System fracturing. Delivery delays begin (2 days → 2-3 weeks). Premiums explode ($25-50 over spot). Paper/physical decouple completely (paper $85, physical $135). Emergency COMEX rule changes likely. Timeline: Late 2026 to early 2027 (or sooner if March 2026 heavy).
THRESHOLD 3 - BREAKING POINT (30-0M oz):
System failure. COMEX declares force majeure. All contracts cash settled (not physical). Paper market dies overnight. Physical market goes vertical ($150-250+). No price discovery mechanism remains. Timeline: 2027-2028 at steady rate, but 2026 if accelerated.
Historical data tracking (past 6 months):


⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this video constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. COMEX inventory projections are based on historical drain rates and may change. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
📚 DATA SOURCES:

CME Group - Daily Silver Warehouse Stocks Report
COMEX Historical Inventory Data (2011-2025)
2011 silver price action (TradingView historical data)
Industrial demand estimates (Samsung, Tesla, solar industry reports)

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