FORECASTING TORNADOES - With the HRRR Weather Model

Applying the HRRR weather model to storm chasing. How I used the HRRR to forecast several tornado events. Lecture at the 2018 Ohio University Meteorological Symposium.

While trying to forecast tornadoes, there’s a ton of data, computer models, imagery and atmosphere layers to analyze. After you choose a target area, you can check several weather models to see if and how precipitation might occur in the region you think is most favorable.

One of the computer models that I use to see precipitation forecasts is the HRRR (“HER”). The HRRR It’s a high resolution model that I use to help time storm initiation, predict cell motions and decipher what kind of storms might occur. But how accurate is the HRRR? In this lecture, I show how I used the HRRR to forecast several tornado events.

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GLOSSARY

Cap - see "Temperature Inversion"

CG - Cloud - to - Ground lightning

Cu Field- Abbreviation for Cumulus field. Indicating instability beginning and possible storm development.

EML (Elevated Mixed Layer)
In the United states, a layer of hot dry air originating from the desert southwest and overspreading the Plains to the East and further. This layer in the atmosphere is often associated with a temperature inversion or "cap."

GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite)
Simply put, "images of clouds from space"

Initiation - Initial thunderstorm development

MCS - Mesoscale Convective System. Big gnarly storm complex or cluster. Usually tracking across a region.

Temperature Inversion - A layer of warmer air that can inhibit thunderstorm development or lock in energy and set the stage for explosive thunderstorm development. A temperature inversion in the lower atmosphere is often called a "cap."