Tariffs Spook Bonds – Is the S&P 500 About to Crack? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

This week’s market action was driven by extreme volatility and conflicting news from Washington, particularly around a potential 90-day tariff pause. While inflation data came in slightly better than expected, Rob emphasizes that the bond market remains the key concern, with recent rate spike activity unsettling institutions. Elliott Wave patterns suggest a possible bottom may be in—or close—especially with signs of recovery across major indices and the emergence of AI-identified Wave Five buy signals. However, continued calm in the bond market is essential for this bounce to hold. Traders should watch the end of next week closely, especially ahead of the holiday weekend.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:24 - Market Overview
01:28 - Economic News
01:59 - SPY
02:53 - TLT
06:18 - SPY Weekly Chart
08:19 - TNX
10:30 - US Dollar
11:46 - VIX
12:51 - GLD
14:30 - SLV
16:30 - UNG
17:56 - USO
19:58 - DIA
20:46 - QQQ
22:40 - IWM
25:29 - PLTR
26:46 - NVDA
27:53 - AAPL
28:46 - AMD
29:54 - MSTR
32:18 - NFTY
34:36 - TradeFinder INFO

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From a macroeconomic standpoint, both the CPI and PPI came in slightly better than expected, easing inflation fears marginally. However, the bond market remains the bigger concern. Rob walked through TLT, the 20-year bond ETF, which is showing classic Elliott Wave behavior, having just completed a textbook five-wave pattern. This, combined with the emergence of HUBB’s new AI-powered Wave Five buy signals, indicates the potential for reversal setups across the equity market.

On the S&P 500 weekly chart, Rob pointed out the 50% retracement zone in Wave Four and emphasized the extreme separation from the 10-day moving average—a rare occurrence that historically precedes strong mean reversion moves. While he stops short of calling a firm bottom, he suggests the conditions are forming for a rebound, especially if bond market volatility continues to ease.

Turning to the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX), Rob explained the recent surge was linked to unwinding rate swap trades, which threatened market stability. If yields calm down, that could remove a major overhang. But any resurgence in volatility could trigger a renewed sell-off, so Rob advises closely monitoring this space next week.

The U.S. Dollar Index also saw a sharp drop, which caught attention. Rob stressed the importance of the 100 support level—if broken, it could signal broader risk-off sentiment. Meanwhile, the spike in the VIX to 60 may have been sufficient to mark at least a short- to intermediate-term bottom in equities, especially as it now retreats toward the more moderate 22.5 zone.

In commodities, gold surged toward the $300 target Rob has previously forecasted, driven by the falling dollar and safe-haven flows. However, the presence of a doji and overbought conditions suggest a pause or pullback may be imminent. Silver (SLV), lagging behind gold, could present a catch-up opportunity, especially if industrial sentiment improves.

Rob also walked through key individual sectors and names—including natural gas (UNG), oil (USO), and tech names like PLTR, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, and MSFT. Many of these stocks are forming potential Wave Five bottoms and are now triggering AI-based buy signals. He emphasized that these setups are contingent on continued stability in rates.