2026 and the Chances of World War 3

The Israel-Iran theatre, the Korean peninsula, NATO’s eastern front and the Taiwan Strait are all risk factors which are swiftly approaching the powder keg of 'miscalculation under pressure’, says security expert.

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Following are excerpts from an article by The Week UK at theweek dot com, entitled "How close are we to World War Three?".

Russia
In a sign of the growing fear that an attack could be imminent, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland and Finland, have announced they are withdrawing from a landmark landmine treaty as they seek to shore up their border defences with Russia. There have also been renewed efforts to revive a Baltic “bog belt” along Nato’s eastern flank to protect Europe from Russia.

If Russia takes military action against any Nato member state, it would force the military alliance into an all-out conflict. In that scenario, Russia could call on its allies to join in a global war. “Serious analysts express concern that Russia may escalate and the world, as it has done so many times in the era of mass warfare, may sleepwalk its way into an engulfing conflict,” said The New Statesman.

Middle East
While both sides backed down following a frantic 24 hours in which the US launched air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the threat from Tehran’s nascent nuclear programme remains “heightened”, said Paul Ingram, research affiliate for the Centre of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, told the The i Paper.

The weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and now the potential decommissioning of Hamas mean Iran has lost much of its proxy influence across the region. Combined with the short-lived Israel-Iran war “calls within Tehran to develop nuclear deterrence will have massively increased”, said Ingram.

China
It has long been assumed that the greatest threat to geopolitical stability is rising tension between China and the US, which could force other countries to align with either superpower. This risks pushing the globe to “the brink of a third world war”, The Straits Times reported.

Many observers anticipate that China will look to invade Taiwan by 2027, which is seen as a “magical” year because it marks the centenary of what was to become the PLA, said Robert Fox in London’s The Standard. The idea that this anniversary could coincide with a serious military operation by Beijing has become a “fixation” in Washington, said Defense News.

North Korea
Since 2019, Kim Jong Un has “focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals”, said Sky News. At the start of last year, he announced that the hermit kingdom had eliminated “the idea of a peaceful unification” with South Korea, said The Associated Press. South Korea has since scrapped a 2018 non-hostility pact aimed at lowering military tensions.

Dr Sean Kenji Starrs, lecturer in international development at King’s College London, told the Daily Mail that “the more likely scenario” than North Korea invading South Korea would be China “encouraging or pressuring” it to do so “in order to expel US troops”. That would “open a new front against the US so that China could more easily take Taiwan.

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