Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026 | Odd Lots

2025 was an extraordinary year, with the real economy defying recession worries, and equity markets putting up monster returns. So can this be repeated again in 2026? On this episode, we speak with two of the top minds at Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius is the bank's chief economist and head of research and Ben Snider is its chief US equity strategist. We review what really happened in 2025, talking about the impact of both AI and the tariffs, as well as how these factors will impact the real economy and stocks next year.

00:00 Introduction
05:58 Economic Growth vs. Unemployment Dynamics
07:39 2025 Market Performance Analysis
08:47 AI Investment and Market Dynamics
11:40 2026 S&P 500 Target and Credit Outlook
13:19 CPI Data Analysis and Inflation Dynamics
18:04 Tariff Impact on Corporate Margins
18:59 AI Productivity and Market Concentration
21:17 Speculative Activity Indicators
22:42 AI and Labor Market Implications
24:53 Consumer Spending and Sentiment Divergence
27:07 Federal Reserve Leadership Transition
28:27 Equity Valuations and Multiples
29:52 AI Productivity Evidence and Modeling
30:40 Market Concentration Analysis
32:24 Risk Factors for 2026 Outlook
34:29 Housing Market Dynamics
36:32 China Economic Outlook
39:30 Historical Market Concentration
40:40 Data Challenges and Economic Forecasting
42:16 2026 Fed Policy Outlook

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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

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