Weekly SMC Outlook: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD (Jan 5-9)

Get my Weekly SMC Outlook for DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD—focused on market structure, fair value gaps, CHoCHs, and what actually matters next week.

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DXY (US Dollar Index)

The DXY is showing a subtle but important change in behavior on the 4-hour timeframe.

While the broader trend remains bearish, price has found acceptance above the top of a distribution channel, which is enough to pause dollar shorts for now.

There are still unmitigated imbalances lower, so I’m watching whether those get revisited before any meaningful reversal attempt.

EURUSD

EURUSD followed through after last week’s internal change of character, pulling back into both the 4-hour and daily fair value gaps.

However, acceptance below the bottom of a distribution channel has shifted the bias from bullish to neutral.

The focus now is on whether price forms a lower high or breaks below the external low, confirming a more bearish shift.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD still has a confirmed higher-time-frame change of character, so there is nothing yet that confirms a major top.

Recent price action has been choppy, but fair value gaps continue to act as key reaction areas.

Even though the trend remains intact, the DXY is being used as a barometer here, which keeps the stance cautious on pound setups.

XAUUSD (Gold)

Gold has printed a daily break of structure, but recent acceptance back below prior highs points to a potential pullback rather than a reversal.

Price is currently in premium, so there’s no interest in buying above 50%.

The main area of focus is daily OTE, where multiple unmitigated imbalances line up and could offer a higher-probability bullish opportunity if price pulls back and confirms on lower time frames.

As always, this is my opinion only and not financial advice.

If this outlook helps, make sure you’re subscribed. I’ve got more detailed breakdowns on these concepts coming up next week.

CHAPTERS

0:00 What This Video Covers
0:15 DXY
4:26 EURUSD
9:30 GBPUSD
12:54 XAUUSD

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#marketstructure #fairvaluegap #dxy #eurusd #xauusd

Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.