How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

Buy my book Humble Pi now! https://mathsgear.co.uk/collections/b...

My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
https://www.harvard.com/event/virtual...

Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video:    • Did Dream Fake His Speedruns - Official Mo...  
Paper: https://mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf

And here is Dream's reply.
Video:    • Видео  
Paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLU...

"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
   • Matt flips a coin 100 times.  

"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
http://content.time.com/time/nation/a...

Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
https://www.statista.com/statistics/2...

Roulette records.
https://www.roulette17.com/stories/re...

CORRECTIONS
At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!

Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.

  / standupmaths  

As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
https://www.janestreet.com/

Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson

MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: http://standupmaths.com/
US book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/bo...
UK book: https://mathsgear.co.uk/collections/b...