Is India really the fastest-growing economy? Economist Arun Kumar breaks down the reality of numbers

In this episode of Frontline Conversations, senior journalist Sukumar Muralidharan speaks with economist and retired professor from JNU, Arun Kumar, who breaks down the turmoil inside India’s economic data ecosystem. He discusses the latest GDP numbers, the IMF’s “not fit for purpose” assessment, and India’s contradictory economic indicators all point to a deeper structural crisis.

Kumar explains why GDP growth is increasingly detached from lived economic realities, how the unorganised sector has been rendered invisible in official measurement, and why the 2011–12 base year has distorted national accounts for a decade. He also details the political pressures shaping data releases—from unemployment and consumption surveys to poverty estimates—and warns that the upcoming revision of the GDP series may still fail without census data and transparency in methodology.

Sukumar Muralidharan is an independent writer, researcher, and journalism instructor based in the Delhi region. Formerly the Chief of Bureau, Frontline, New Delhi, he has spent over two decades in print journalism, writing on science, technology, economics, and political affairs.

Highlights:
-Why India’s GDP numbers are unreliable—and what the IMF got right
-How the shift to the MCA-21 database and removal of shell companies distorted growth estimates
-The systematic invisibilisation of the unorganised sector after demonetisation, GST and the pandemic
-Manipulation of data on employment, consumption, poverty and health
-The political logic behind “fastest growing economy” narratives
-Why GST cuts, corporate-friendly labour codes and tariff geopolitics are worsening inequality

Perfect for those interested in:
-Students of economics and public policy
-Researchers of political economy and development studies
-Informal sector and labour rights activists
-Think-tank analysts tracking India’s macroeconomic indicators

Credits:
Host: Sukumar Muralidharan
Camera: Vedaant Lakhera and Vitasta Kaul
Editing: Razal Pareed
Producers: Mridula Vijayarangakumar and Kavya Pradeep M

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