Markets Expect Higher Rates After Election in 2026

Markets Expect Higher Rates After Election in 2026

Financial markets rarely wait for certainty.

Long before policies are announced or decisions are made, expectations begin to form quietly in bond yields, interest rate markets, and forward pricing. Right now, those signals are pointing toward a single question with wide implications for households, businesses, and borrowers across New Zealand: are markets expecting higher interest rates after the election, and if so, why?

In this episode, Andrew Malcolm is joined by Kelly Eckhold, Chief Economist at Westpac New Zealand, for a grounded discussion on how markets are interpreting current economic conditions and what those expectations actually reflect beneath the headlines.

This is not a conversation about political messaging or forecasts.
It is about how markets process information.

Andrew and Kelly examine:

How markets form expectations about future interest rates

Why elections influence pricing even before any policy changes occur

The difference between political commitments and market assumptions

What “pricing in” really means in practical terms

How inflation, growth, and fiscal signals feed into rate expectations

The lag between elections, policy decisions, and real economic outcomes

What households and businesses should understand about market signals

Rather than focusing on a single data point or narrative, this discussion looks at how multiple indicators interact and why markets often move ahead of public debate. Expectations can shift long before official decisions are made, and those shifts can have real-world consequences even if policy ultimately changes course.

This episode is for viewers who want clarity without exaggeration and context without reassurance. It explains how to interpret market behaviour, why expectations matter, and what it realistically means when markets signal higher rates after an election.

No predictions dressed up as certainty.
No political positioning.
No alarmism.

Just a clear, evidence-based conversation about how markets think, what they are signalling right now, and why understanding those signals matters long before outcomes are confirmed.

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