Global Shift: Trade Wars, Capital Flight & The Future of Emerging Markets

#EmergingMarkets #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets #TradeWars #CapitalFlows #Geopolitics #InvestmentBanking #GlobalEconomy #Tariffs #GoldmanSachs #JPMorgan #Invesco

The Great Rewiring: Trade, Capital & The Future of Financial Markets
Join top experts from Moelis, Invesco, Goldman Sachs, Lazard, and J.P. Morgan as they unpack the seismic shifts reshaping the global economy.

Featuring Global Financial Leaders:
Francesco Del Vecchio, BS '97 - Managing Director, Moelis and Co.

Maria Claudia Ribeiro de Castro - Director of Fixed Income Research, Invesco

Alberto Ramos - Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Rohit Chopra - Managing Director, Lazard

Joyce Chang - Chair of Global Research, J.P. Morgan’s Commercial and Investment Bank General

Disclaimer and Release Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance or investment advice, or the recommendation of or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or invest in any investment product, vehicle, service or instrument. The views expressed by participants are entirely their own and do not represent the views of Cornell EMI nor the institutions which they represent.

0:00 - Welcome and Introduction

0:12 - Key Objectives of Trump's Decisions (Three Categories)

0:42 - Objective 1: Increase CapEx, Growth, and Productivity (Tax Cuts, Deregulation)

0:59 - Objective 2: Reindustrialization and Reshoring (Tariffs as an Incentive)

1:19 - Objective 3: National Security and Strategic Autonomy

1:34 - Trump's Campaign Promises and Approval Ratings (Polarization)

2:15 - Market Rally, Emerging Markets (EM) Outperformance, and Returning Flows

2:50 - Attractive EM Valuations and the "Singles and Doubles" Approach for Investors

3:18 - Policy Support from Central Banks and Neutral Rates in the US vs. EM Space

3:40 - Capital Flows and Trading Patterns (Not De-globalization, but a Shift)

3:53 - EM Dependency on China and Shifting Trade Flows

4:15 - Why Tariffs Haven't Had a Devastating Impact (Offsets and Exemptions)

5:10 - Significant Shift in Trading Patterns: Decline in China's Exports to US, Increase to EM

5:34 - US Still Dominant for FDI/Remittances in Latin America; Increased EM Dependency on China

5:52 - Changing Public Opinion: More Countries View China Favorably

6:27 - Tracking Investment Returning to the US (Debunking High White House Numbers)

8:07 - Summary of Trump Policies' Impact: Shift in Trade/Investment Patterns, Not Devastating for Growth

8:19 - The AI Story: US-China Focus and Mag Seven Investment

8:41 - AI's Contribution to Global Growth and EM Positioning in the AI Race

9:24 - US vs. China on AI and the Real Economy vs. Financial Market Flows

9:52 - Opportunity for Brazil in Data Centers

10:02 - Conclusion of Keynote and Transition to Panel

10:24 - Panel Question: Most Pressing Macro Trends Affecting Emerging Markets

10:48 - Alberto's Response: Agreement on No De-globalization/De-dollarization, Shift in Marginal Dollar Allocation

11:21 - Alberto on AI: Transformational Spillovers and EM Opportunity (Brazil)

12:00 - Alberto on Tariffs: A Tax that Changes Incentives, but with Difficulties

12:38 - Two Problems with Tariffs: Erratic Implementation and One Instrument Pursuing Multiple Objectives (Fiscal, Political, Geostrategic)

14:55 - Geostrategic Fragmentation: Deviating from the Efficient Frontier

16:24 - Roit's Question: Opportunities for Non-Traditional Trade Partners (India, Southeast Asia)

16:51 - Roit's Response: EM is Not a Monolithic Asset Class; Focus on Individual Companies

17:55 - EM as a Story of Hyper-Complexity and Regional Opportunities (Latin America Rates, India Middle Class, China Tech Focus, Middle East Transformation)

19:52 - Claudia's Question: Implications of On-Mass Rate Cuts in Emerging Markets (for Fixed Income)

20:25 - Claudia's Response: EM is in Better Domestic Equilibrium (Autonomy from the Fed)

21:32 - EM Resilience is a Standout Despite Policy Uncertainty

23:28 - Fed Policy Still Casts a Long Shadow (US Dollar Weakness is Supportive for EM)

25:13 - Divergence Across EM Countries in Room to Cut Rates (Focus on Latin America)

26:26 - Alberto's Follow-up: Room to Cut is Conditional on Further Fed Cuts and a Weak Dollar

27:08 - Alberto on Risk vs. Uncertainty (Markets can price risk, but panic with uncertainty)

28:43 - Francesco's Question: US Bankruptcies Increasing Despite Market Performance—What does this say about US Economic Health vs. EM?

29:44 - Francesco's Response: US Default Rate is Low, but High Liability Management (Extending Maturities)

31:17 - Contrast: LatAm Cases are Mostly Idiosyncratic, not related to Macro Trends like Tariffs.