Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan | Prof G Markets

This week on Prof G Markets, Scott and Ed discuss how the markets reacted to Trump’s tariff exemption on smartphones and computers, the dollar falling to a three-year low, and first quarter bank earnings. Then William Cohan, New York Times bestselling author and founding partner of Puck, joins the show to unpack the latest developments in the bond market. He explores the potential fallout of a credit crisis, weighs in on whether Japan and China are wielding the bond market as a geopolitical weapon, and offers his take on where the next wave of damage from the tariffs is likely to surface.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Today's number
00:20 - Today's episode
03:57 - Headlines
04:47 - The 2025 Tariff Shock
11:59 - U.S. Dollar Under Threat
17:15 - Bank Trading Bonanza
25:22 - Ad break
26:50 - Breaking Down Warning Signals from the Bond Market — ft. William Cohan
27:00 - What happened to the yield on the 10 year treasury and why were people so concerned about it?
30:27 - What is a credit crisis and why would it be so bad for our economy?
34:24 - Do you think that Japan and China used the debt markets as a weapon to show they were unhappy about tariffs?
36:32 - Do you think China has a serious ability to wreak havoc on our economy via treasuries?
39:42 - Ad break
40:56 - Do you think what we’re seeing with the bond market is a one-off situation or a structural change?
46:25 - What would be your macro-prediction, as to where all of this money is going to go?
49:28 - Where do you think the next manifestations of damage from this trade war will pop up?
52:35 - Credits

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