Dan Ives Drops Apple and Tesla Prediction

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Dan Ives says Apple is about to enter its most important moment since the iPhone — and it all comes down to one move: teaming up with Google’s Gemini instead of building their own AI model. Apple is ripping the Band-Aid off culturally, restructuring leadership, and preparing to launch a paid AI subscription service in 2026. This partnership could be the trigger for a massive hardware upgrade cycle, pushing millions of users to buy new iPhones just to access Apple Intelligence. Apple avoids burning tens of billions on AI training, Google provides the intelligence, and Apple monetizes the ecosystem. It’s the App Store playbook all over again — they don’t build the apps, they take the cut.

OpenAI, once untouchable, is now fighting to survive. The launch of Gemini flipped the industry, and Sam Altman has activated a full Code Red to stop further market share loss. In 2024 they had 90% of the traffic. Now it’s closer to 70%, while Google explodes past 15% — not because Gemini is just better, but because Google can bundle it into billions of devices for free. Dan Ives still believes OpenAI could hit a trillion-dollar valuation, but this arms race is no longer about hype — it’s about who controls the entire silicon-to-software stack. Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Tesla — they all want a piece. And there won’t be just one winner.

But while everyone else fights for cloud intelligence, Tesla is pulling away in physical intelligence — the AI that moves in the real world. Dan Ives calls Tesla the ultimate physical AI company, and 2026 may be the year Wall Street finally understands it. Robotaxis, Optimus, autonomy — these aren’t side projects. They’re trillion-dollar markets. The same neural nets running Full Self-Driving will run Optimus, and Tesla’s secret weapon is the largest video dataset on Earth. OpenAI trains on text. Tesla trains on reality. That means when Optimus reaches scale, it won’t just drive cars — it will do physical labor across every industry. A synthetic workforce with software margins is the reason Dan says Tesla and Nvidia are the two best AI plays in the world.

Apple becomes the AI landlord. Google becomes the AI brain. OpenAI fights to stay alive. Tesla builds the AI that actually touches the real world. 2026 is the year all of these narratives collide — and the market won’t look anything like it does today.