Cracking the Code on Oil Pricing | The Officials Explain

In this episode of The Officials Explain, Ed and Will break down the complexities of the Dubai crude oil market, from physical premiums and OSP pricing to how Chinese demand and Trump-era trade dynamics are influencing oil markets.

Understand the Dubai physical window, the mechanics of partials and convergences, and how refiners and trade houses determine value. Learn how key players like Aramco, , PetroChina, and Vitol shape the market—and what that means for backwardation, contango, and global crude supply flows.

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Chapters below:
0:00 Introduction to The Officials' Energy Reports
1:05 What is the Dubai physical window? How does it work?
3:30 Understanding physical premiums & the M2 swap
6:45 Partials, convergences, and cargo delivery explained
9:15 OSPs: How Aramco sets prices & why it matters
11:55 Backwardation vs. Contango: Market structure insights
14:20 Vitol’s major crude buys & bullish signals
17:00 Saudi allocations to China and their impact
20:10 Chinese demand, refinery trends & $70 Brent “put”
23:00 Macro forces: Tariffs, sanctions, and trade flows
25:45 Dubai outlook: What to watch in coming months
28:00 Final thoughts & where to find our daily market reports

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