How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower

Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.

As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.

So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?

Patreon:
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Relevant sources and reading:

NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...

Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06...

UK Defence Personnel Statistics
https://researchbriefings.files.parli...

https://www.gov.uk/government/publica...

https://www.gov.uk/government/statist...

Mediazona Russian KIA count
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05...

US Army Demographics:
https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2...

ADF demographics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/peo...

ROK conscript mobile phone trial
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?...

US misses recruiting goal:
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-a...

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Sto....

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/202...

https://news.usni.org/2022/12/01/toug...

father and son deploying together
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2...

David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/add....

CDC data
https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/...

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/20...

US Army recruiting reforms:
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-a...

https://www.army.mil/article/270458/a...

https://www.army.mil/article/270692/a...

UK medical classifications 1914
https://eehe.org.uk/?p=25030

Institutional trust levels:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-rea...

USAREC:
https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts...

Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia
https://jamestown.org/program/tricky-...

Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/1...

USAF pilot poaching
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/yo...

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and limitations apply:

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 — History
00:07:57 — The Funnel
00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 — Driving Propensity
00:27:33 — Retention
00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 — Looking Abroad
00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 — Conclusion
01:05:29 — Channel Update