Beyond Speculation: Is A New Order Approaching?

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets are telling us something very important as we career into year end. The old order, structurally in favour of those who sold, bought, traded and owned claims on paper is being subsumed by the new, a world in favour of those who own real things, unleveraged by debt.

As Jonathan Shapiro wrote in the AFR this week, financial markets are becoming one big gamble, catalysed by leading global retail brokers leading to a rise of prediction markets and the inevitable fusion with financial markets that is turning just about anything and everything into speculation. This of course leads to the volatility we are seeing in markets, as the debt-for-growth regime is falling apart. While the Fed this week was up to its usual tricks, manipulating Treasury bonds and MBS out its rear orifice in service to yet another QE of some kind to come, at best we will have a 1970s style inflation problem where paper assets stagger forward with relatively poor returns while real assets, including many important commodities, as led by silver (after gold led the whole process beginning in 2021) greatly out-perform. Silver futures were last at 62.085 and Gold at 4,329.80. both touching all time highs.

The Global MSCI Index was down 0.63% on Friday, along with the European STOXX 600, which fell 0.53% on Friday, and was down for the week, while the MSCI All Asia Pacific Ex Japan was flat though in contrast the S&P/ASX 200 index which advanced 1.2 per cent, to 8697.30, taking the total gain for the week to 0.7 per cent.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed down more than 1% on Friday with investors leaving technology for other sectors as Broadcom and Oracle fuelled concerns about an AI bubble and rising U.S. Treasury yields added pressure after some policymakers spoke out against easing monetary policy. The NASDAQ Composite fell 1.69%, to 23,195.17 while the S&P 500 lost 1.07%, to 6,827.89. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.63% while the NASDAQ declined 1.62%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% on the day to 48,458.05 but managed to show a weekly gain of 1.05%, signalling an important pivot from AI.

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