The Truth Behind the America-Venezuela Conflict

Jay is joined by geopolitical analyst and forecaster George Friedman to unpack what President Trump really represents in the long arc of American history. We revisit George’s “vanilla president” thesis and why, personality aside, Trump’s project to dismantle the post-1945 world order was predictable and perhaps inevitable. We dig into the shift from global policeman back toward U.S. isolationism, the real story behind Venezuela and the U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean, and why a renewed Russia–Cuba pact makes the Florida Straits one of the most important choke points on Earth.

George's Links:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/
https://x.com/George_Friedman

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00:00 – Intro
01:06 – Trump’s predictable project: dismantling the post-1945 order
04:21 – Hippie president? Peace, retrenchment & hot spots from Ukraine to Venezuela
11:50 – Isolationism vs global policeman: returning to America’s old norm
17:16 – How far should US intervention go – and when does it stop?
18:50 – Why 800 US bases when the Soviet threat is gone?
21:21 – Venezuela as a smokescreen: what’s really happening in the Caribbean?
22:01 – Cuba–Russia pact, Florida Straits & the Gulf trade choke point
26:32 – Monroe Doctrine 2.0, cartels & Russian meddling in Latin America
29:41 – Economic stakes of the Gulf of Mexico & Mississippi River
31:05 – Plausible deniability: why Washington leads with the drug war narrative
34:12 – Putin’s failed Ukraine gamble & giving him an off-ramp
48:06 – Why wars are sold on misleading narratives
53:28 – South China Sea, island chains & China’s geography problem
55:31 – China’s economic fragility, internal unrest & dependence on US markets
1:00:12 – The 40-year export superpower cycle: US, Japan, China
1:06:07 – Why China can’t invade Taiwan or break the island chain
1:07:29 – Rare earths, supply chains & how vulnerable is the US really?
1:14:07 – Did globalization blindside Washington and Wall Street?
1:17:28 – Term limits, FDR precedent & Trump running again
1:20:11 – Administrative state vs elected power: the constitutional paradox
1:24:02 – Roman Republic parallels

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