This Item Doesn't Exist - HCIM #17

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All items have a chance of being dropped that is expressible as a number—their drop rate. In Old School RuneScape, drop rates are treated independently from one to the next; meaning no previous drops decrease or increase the drop rates for future kills.

Drop rates such as "1 in 5" do not guarantee such a drop will be obtained after 5 kills. Instead, it can be thought that on average, a player would receive the drop once per 5 kills, with the chance to receive more or less. An exception to this is if there is a bad luck mitigation mechanic listed on certain monsters and events; this will increase the chance of receiving a drop after a dry streak. While a player killing such a creature 30 times and not obtaining such a drop is unlikely, the players' chance of their next kill obtaining the drop remains the same.

While somewhat counter-intuitive, probability itself cannot be simply multiplied per drop. For example if one were to calculate the chance of receiving a drop at least once after 100 kills as 10%, it would not become 20% after 200 kills. If it was additive, then the chance after 1100 kills would be 110%, which is impossible as probabilities are always equal to or between 0 and 1.



Edited by JonMP4
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