The US Treasury Market is Doing Something Extremely Unusual

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The yield curve has steepened after the longest inversion in modern history, a move that has historically signaled an oncoming recession. In the past, this pattern appeared before the 2001 downturn, the 2007 financial crisis, and the 2020 recession, making it one of the most closely watched recession forecasts. But with Q2 GDP showing 3% growth, the stock market near record highs, and unemployment close to historic lows, the U.S. economy looks resilient.

In this video, we explore how the yield curve works, what the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts mean for the economic outlook, and why the labor market could determine whether the next phase is a soft landing, a classic recession, or prolonged stagnation. For anyone following market trends and economic indicators, this analysis looks at the opportunities and risks shaping the path ahead.

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