The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111.

In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day.

The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem.

Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage.


Links:
Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/

Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-hist...

Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/

David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/dav...


The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/


Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show
1:20 Macro view
2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day
4:17 Misleading data
6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies
7:40 GDI recession
10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco
12:29 Structural bond bear market
15:27 Supply and demand in bond market
17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade
19:40 T-bills
21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally
25:30 The country is circling the drain
28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs
29:20 Where do you want to be allocated
31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem
33:00 Parting thoughts

#economy #recession #inflation