The Anatomy of a Crisis: Tariff Talk and Market Reaction!

The Trump tariffs announced on Wednesday have clearly unsettled markets, both in their breadth and magnitude. As stocks go into meltdown model across the globe, I take a look at the damage to equity values on Thursday (April 3) and Friday (April 4), across sectors, market cap classes and other segments. To get a sense on how this crisis will play out in markets, I break down a crisis cycle, using the 2008 banking and the 2020 COVID crises to illustrate. The Tariff Criss is still in its early days, but if history is any guide, there will be aftershocks that increase volatility and create more downside, there will be near term negatives for the economy and in the long term, while global growth is likely to be low, the global economic pie will be reapportioned, with winners and losers.

Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...
ERP by day for Tariff Crisis: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...