Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Bet Robots, Robotaxis & World Domination

Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Bet Robots, Robotaxis & World Domination

Elon Musk is putting his money where his mouth is. In a securities filing on Friday, Tesla disclosed a new stock award for its CEO worth as much as $1 trillion. It hinges entirely on Musk’s ambitious claims that his focus on humanoid robots and robotaxis will turn Tesla into “the most valuable company in the world by far,” as he has often said. It’s not crazy to imagine Tesla passing everyone else, although it has some ways to go: Its current market capitalization of $1.1 trillion compares with market leader Nvidia’s value of $4 trillion.
Musk has also suggested Tesla might become as “valuable as the next five companies combined,” but that’s not a goal he seems willing to commit to. The top five companies are now worth $16.6 trillion. The new stock award doesn’t require him to get Tesla’s market cap that high. He just—just!—has to get Tesla to an $8.5 trillion market capitalization within a decade to have a chance of collecting all the shares in the award. And what an award—he stands to get as many as 423.7 million shares, or 12% of Tesla’s share count, which is roughly equivalent to the stake he already owns (that’s excluding the shares granted him by the earlier big stock award from 2018 that is still being litigated). The shares in the latest award are worth $143 billion at Tesla’s current market price. Given the market cap goals Tesla has set, though, they’d be worth nearly eight times as much if he collected all of them.

Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Bet Robots, Robotaxis & World Domination. Musk has to do much more than just lift Tesla’s stock price—he also has to meet operational milestones. These include earnings goals—at the very least, Tesla has to more than triple earnings from current levels—and product goals, such as delivering the 20 millionth Tesla. (Tesla so far has sold about eight million cars). Other product goals include delivering a million robots, something Musk has said he can do within five years. There is an out, however: If something happens “outside of Tesla’s control” that hurts its ability to achieve most of the product goals—such as legislation restricting robotaxis—then Musk can meet the criteria for the award on the market capitalization goals alone. That seems like a significant qualifier, although Tesla’s stock price likely won’t rise too far if his robotaxi or robot ambitions fail. Find more details of the package here.

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