I Coded Every NFL Play. Here's Who ACTUALLY Wins Eagles vs 49ers (2026 Playoffs)

I used Python to analyze every play from the 2025 NFL season to predict the NFC Wild Card matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. What I found completely contradicts what the TV analysts are saying about this game.

🔬 WHAT THE DATA REVEALS:

The surface-level EPA (Expected Points Added) metrics say the Eagles should dominate. Their offense is elite, generating massive value per play.

But when I coded custom functions to separate "Explosiveness" from "Sustainability," a completely different story emerged:

The Eagles are BOOM OR BUST:
• High EPA (explosive chunk plays)
• Below-average sustainability
• Rely on big plays to score points

The 49ers are METHODICAL GRINDERS:
• Barely explosive, but elite sustainability
• 50% third-down conversion rate (vs. 38% for PHI)
• 12-point percentage gap in the stat that matters most

This is a classic style clash: The Eagles want to play fast and explosive. The 49ers want to shorten the game, control the clock, and play keep-away.

🎯 THE SMOKING GUN METRIC:

Third-down conversions. The 49ers convert 50% of their third downs—that's borderline historic efficiency. Combined with their run-heavy approach (Pass Rate Over Expected shows they run WAY more than the average NFL team), they can realistically execute 7-8 minute touchdown drives.

The strategic implication: If SF wins time of possession 38-22, they only need to score on FOUR drives to win. They don't need to match the Eagles' explosive offense point-for-point. They just need to keep Jalen Hurts on the sideline.

⚠️ THE CATCH:

This strategy only works if the 49ers get an early lead or keep it close. If the Eagles go up 14-0 in the first quarter, the game script collapses. San Francisco has to abandon the run, and once they're forced into obvious passing situations, their offense barely generates value. Brock Purdy isn't winning a shootout against Jalen Hurts.

So the 49ers are playing an incredibly high-variance strategy: Win the coin toss, score first, control the game from the jump. If they fall behind early, the math says they're toast.

But if they execute? The data suggests they have a legitimate path to victory that surface-level metrics completely miss.

📊 ALL THE CODE & DATA:

Full Jupyter Notebook, datasets, and methodology available on GitHub:
https://github.com/andrew-shimshock/N...

Download the play-by-play data, run the analysis yourself, and modify the code to analyze other matchups. Everything is reproducible and open-source.

⏱️ VIDEO CHAPTERS:

0:00 - Intro
0:55 - The Surface Level: EPA Says Eagles Dominate
2:01 - Coding for Style: Explosiveness vs. Sustainability
3:19 - The Strategic Insight: Pass Rate Over Expected
4:32 - The Smoking Gun: Drive Sustainability Metrics
6:03 - The Counter-Narrative: What If SF Falls Behind?
6:44 - Conclusion: The 49ers' High-Variance Path to Victory

🛠️ TOOLS & METHODOLOGY:

• Python 3.11
• Pandas for data manipulation
• Matplotlib & Seaborn for visualizations
• NFL play-by-play data (2025 regular season, Weeks 1-18)
• Jupyter Notebook for reproducible analysis
• Custom functions for style metrics (explosiveness vs. sustainability)

🔗 CONNECT WITH ME:

GitHub: https://github.com/andrew-shimshock

📌 NOTES:

This analysis was completed before the Wild Card game. All predictions and insights are based solely on regular season data through Week 18 of the 2025 season. This is educational content sports outcomes involve significant variance that no model can fully predict.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, drop a comment with what matchup you want me to analyze next. And if you're a data person, clone the GitHub repo and run your own simulations.

Let's see if the Python model holds up on Sunday.

#NFLPlayoffs #Eagles #49ers #PythonProgramming #DataScience #NFLAnalytics #WildCard2026 #FootballAnalytics #SportsAnalytics #DataVisualization #NFLStats #JupyterNotebook #OpenSource #SaquonBarkley #BrockPurdy #JalenHurts

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⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Sports outcomes involve significant variance and unpredictable factors (injuries, weather, officiating, individual performance) that no statistical model can fully capture. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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FAIR USE NOTICE: This video may contain copyrighted material (NFL game footage, team logos) used under Fair Use doctrine (17 U.S.C. § 107) for purposes of criticism, commentary, and educational analysis. All trademarks and copyrights belong to their respective owners.