July 2025 Housing Market Update | Dallas–Fort Worth & National Real Estate Trends

Welcome to the July Monthly Market Report from Paragon Realty Advisors! I’m Mark Meras, joined by my business partner and co-founder Kyle Kreick, and today we’re breaking down the most important housing market insights as we hit the midpoint of 2025.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on market trends, this video will give you the clarity you need to make smarter real estate decisions.

⏱️ Jump to a Section:
0:00 Welcome & July 2025 Market Report Overview - Welcome to the July 2025 Monthly Market Report from Paragon Realty Advisors! Mark and Kyle introduce the three key topics: new home incentives, slowing price growth, and the 2025 housing market forecast.
1:20 Buyers: Why New Construction is Your Best Option Now - Kyle kicks off with the new construction market analysis. Discover why new builds are a great option for homebuyers right now, with rising inventory and major builder incentives in 2025.
1:27 New Home Inventory Rises: 9.8 Months' Supply - A deep dive into the new construction inventory data. See the chart showing the months' supply and why this rising inventory is creating new opportunities for first-time buyers and those looking to move.
1:47 🔥 Builders Offering HUGE Incentives in 2025 - This is where the market gets interesting! Learn about the high percentage of communities offering new-home incentives on both to-be-built and quick move-in homes. Builders are motivated to move inventory!
2:12 Mortgage Rate Buy-Downs Explained - How are builders making homes more affordable? They're offering major mortgage rate buy-downs. See the chart showing the average new home mortgage rate is significantly lower than existing homes. Includes insight from Realtor.com.
2:52 New Construction Price Cuts: Highest Since 2022 - It's not just rates—builders are cutting home prices too. The NAHB chart shows 37% of builders cut prices in June 2025. This is the highest percentage of price cuts since data tracking began.
3:25 Buyer-Seller Imbalance: Market Shift Analysis - Mark discusses the buyer-seller imbalance in the housing market. The market has shifted from a few years ago; learn what this softening demand means for home sellers and buyers.
4:16 Home Price Softening Expanding to the West & Sunbelt - See where home price softening is happening, expanding from the Sunbelt into the West. We discuss where markets are cooling and where they are still "hot" (like the Northeast).
4:40 National Price Deceleration Explained (Zillow Chart) - National data shows a clear deceleration in home price appreciation. The Zillow chart illustrates how price growth has slowed dramatically since mortgage rates rose, signaling a cooling market.
5:04 Tampa & Austin: Home Prices Falling Year-Over-Year - A look at specific metros. 22 of the 50 largest metros are now seeing falling home prices year-over-year, led by places like Tampa and Austin. What does this price decline mean for local homeowners?
5:32 🔑 Housing Market Forecast 2025: Rates, Prices, & Sales - The million-dollar question: What are the experts forecasting for the rest of 2025? Greg McBride and Mike Simonsen weigh in on home price predictions and market trends.
5:52 Average Home Price Appreciation Forecasts REVISED DOWN - See the latest 2025 home price forecasts from eight major sources. The average appreciation is now just 1.9%, with many forecasts (like Redfin and Zillow) being revised downward.
6:44 Mortgage Rate Projections for Q3/Q4 2025 - What is the outlook for 30-year fixed mortgage rates? Fannie Mae, MBA, and Wells Fargo forecast rates will average 6.4% to 6.7% over the next year. This is the key factor impacting affordability.
7:19 Existing & New Home Sales Volume Forecast - How will low affordability impact sales? A look at the forecast for existing and new home sales volume for 2025. The market is expected to remain slow, causing a reaction from builders.
7:48 Builders Become Cautious: Single-Family Starts Declining - Robert Dietz (NAHB) forecasts a decline in single-family housing starts for 2025. The data shows builders are pulling back on the development pipeline.
8:03 Final Takeaways for Buyers, Sellers, & Homeowners - Danielle Hale (Realtor.com) gives the final takeaway: buyers have options and leverage to negotiate now, but new homes may be harder to find next year. Final advice for making smart decisions in this complex market.
8:38 Contact Paragon Realty & Wrap-Up - A final message: visit www.ParagonDFW.com for more educational content. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and comment!

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