Africa Continental Foresight Consultations - Keynote Address by Dr. Namukolo Covic, CGIAR

Africa’s agrifood systems are experiencing increasing volatility driven by climate change, demographic pressures, environmental degradation, market disruptions, transboundary pests and diseases, conflict, and persistent food and nutrition insecurity. These pressures have heightened the urgency of meeting the CAADP Commitments, Agenda 2063 aspirations, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

The Kampala CAADP Declaration (2025) underscores the need for anticipatory, evidence-driven and inclusive approaches to achieve continent-wide targets that include increasing agrifood output by 45 percent, reducing post-harvest losses by 50 percent, tripling intra-African agrifood trade, halving the gender yield gap, and strengthening resilience to climate and socio-economic shocks by 2035. These ambitions require stronger capabilities for foresight, strategic planning, and governance.

The CAADP Kampala Strategy and Action Plan (2026–2035) identifies foresight, analytics, and early-warning systems as foundational to the new implementation cycle. The Kampala Implementation Guidelines place analytics and diagnostics at the centre of the domestication process, complementing governance, investment planning and mutual accountability structures. Together, these instruments create a timely opportunity to establish a coordinated, long-term foresight architecture under the leadership of the African Union Commission (AUC).

Over the past decade, Africa has developed significant foresight capacity. The Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and CAADP-XP4 institutions have established methodologies and national foresight hubs. The Africa Foresight Academy (AFA) serves as a continental platform for foresight learning and coordination. Partnerships with CGIAR centres, FAO, IDRC, GIZ, Oxford University, and Wageningen University have strengthened foresight evidence and tools.

The Food Systems Resilience Programme (FSRP) Phase 3 reinforces these efforts. Component 3.3 prioritizes forecasting, risk analytics and early warning. Components 4.1 to 4.3 emphasise the integration of foresight into NAIP/RAIP planning, policy reform, and investment design. These continental consultations aim to consolidate these initiatives under a unified AUC-DARBE-led framework.

Main Objective
To strengthen and institutionalise inclusive foresight systems across Africa, enhancing the capacity of Member States, RECs, and continental institutions to anticipate risks, inform long-term investment decisions, and support implementation of the Kampala CAADP Declaration, Agenda 2063, AfCFTA, and FSRP commitments.

Specific Objectives
• Align foresight priorities with core AU policy frameworks, including the Food Systems Resilience Programme, the Kampala Declaration, and the CAADP Action Plan 2026-2035.
• Draft a Map and connect foresight institutions, initiatives, and capacities across Africa to build a coherent and collaborative ecosystem.
• Co-develop a draft roadmap and terms of reference for the AU Charter on Institutionalising Foresight, defining governance mandates, roles and implementation modalities.
• Draft Knowledge Management, communication, advocacy, and investment pathways that generate sustained demand for foresight among policymakers, practitioners, and development partners.
• Develop a draft framework for incorporating gender, youth, and broader social inclusion perspectives into foresight practices.
• Establish a monitoring, evaluation, learning and accountability framework aligned with the BR processes.