The EUROPEAN GAMBLE BACKING UKRAINE /Alexander Mercouris & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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The discussion argues that Ukraine is refusing negotiations and insists on not retreating, effectively ensuring the war continues until one side collapses—likely Ukraine, given Russia’s larger industrial capacity, manpower, and long-term sustainment ability.

Europe, meanwhile, is portrayed as gambling on the unlikely hope that Russia will eventually exhaust itself, despite measurable indicators showing the opposite. The speakers suggest Europe is driven less by military logic and more by emotional and political factors: hostility toward Putin and Trump, discomfort at acknowledging Russia’s strength, and fear of a potential U.S.–Russia diplomatic accommodation that could marginalize Europe.

They raise a darker possibility: some European policymakers may already expect Ukraine to collapse and intend to use that outcome to justify more defense spending, intensify a new Cold War atmosphere, and strengthen European integration and centralized EU power. NATO rhetoric about long-term threats from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is seen as feeding this narrative.

Despite leaders and media amplifying fear, European publics are not enthusiastic about rearmament, conscription, or major military buildups. Voters are more concerned about economic stagnation, cost-of-living pressures, and immigration. Politicians focused on domestic issues are gaining; those focused on Ukraine and Russia tend to lose support.

Finally, many ordinary Europeans notice a contradiction: leaders warn that Russia is an existential military threat while simultaneously mocking Moscow’s limited territorial gains in Ukraine. This inconsistency is widely discussed on social media and in private conversations.