The Unintended Consequences of Ignoring Evacuee Response

S.M.V. Gwynne – Movement Strategies - FEMTC 2018

Post: https://www.femtc.com/events/2018/d2-...

It is critical to be skeptical of computational evacuation models – as it is
with all modelling efforts. However, it is just as important to understand what constitutes a model.
This presentation covers various approaches to modelling. The key is that skepticism and curiosity is maintained (or increased) but applied to all modelling endeavours.

The Conceptual Model of Evacuee Response
Testing the basic understanding –logic, but also scope, refinement, moderation, translation, etc.
The benefits and dangers of an analogy
Example: The Procedural Implications of Adopting Different Conceptual Models

Deductive Approaches
At a very minimum – for Scenario Development
State initial assumptions (based on conceptual understanding) and derive consequences that follow
Example: The Impact of Social Groups on Large Crowds

Inductive Approaches – The Bread and Butter of computational modelling
Projecting outcomes with a reasonable degree of confidence based on the credibility of our conceptual understanding and the process by which it translates initial conditions to a future projected state.
Importance of understanding the active agents and the modes by which emergent
conditions are produced – agent decision-making and agent interaction
Example: The stages of evacuee interaction with emergency signs

Abductive Approaches – Pragmatic attempts to develop candidate explanations
Imperfect by definition – affirming the consequent by design
Assessing behavioural explanations by bounding the conditions
Demonstration: Testing candidate explanations

The cascading impact of evacuation models on fire modelling
The evil door and its pervasive impact on outcomes

For more information and videos from FEMTC 2018, please visit our website at http://www.thunderheadeng.com/femtc-2018