"Blockbuster" US-China soybean deal update: some good news for American farmers. But mostly bad

China is again buying US soybeans, in accordance with the framework agreed to in November. Cargoes on order thus far total 10 million tons, providing American farmers some relief.

But soybean prices are drifting lower, while soybean farm expenses are up over 12% since 2024.

Brazil has recently announced a record crop, and insiders there and in China forecast soybean shipments to China will reach 100 million tons in 2026.

The trade deal from November locks in China to 25 million tons of soybean buys, per year, for the next three years. Those volumes are 14% lower than the average from previous years, and are likely to command even lower prices, given massive soybean harvests in South America.

Closing scene, Wulingyuan elevator, Hunan

Resources and links:

Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026
https://www.agweb.com/news/business/f...

Brazil projects record soybean crop and growing exports, citing demand from China
https://www.michiganfarmnews.com/braz...

Agreement pauses rare earth restrictions and lowers some levies, but analysts warn key disputes remain unresolved
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...

Soybean futures, trailing 3 months
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ash...

China halts soy imports from Brazil plants, pivots to US amid food safety probe
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplo...

Brazil Agriculture Ministry Says China Banned Five Soy Exporters
https://www.agriculture.com/partners-...

China buys more US soybeans, total purchases approach 10 million tons
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/c...

U.S.–China Soybean Deal: Comparing Past Export Levels and Global Market Impacts
https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ho...

Bloomberg, China buys two thirds of pledged US soybeans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

The Rising Cost Squeeze: Soybean Farmers Face a Third Year of Losses
https://soygrowers.com/news-releases/...