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IMO Dec 23, 2025: Increased Likelihood of an Eruption is ongoing on the Sundhnúkur Crater Row

Magma accumulation slow but steady
Magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi remains slow but steady, comparable to recent weeks. As long as magma accumulation continues, the likelihood of a magma intrusion and volcanic eruption remains elevated; however, uncertainty regarding the timing of the next eruption increases when magma accumulation is slow. Given the current rate of accumulation, the uncertainty in timing spans several months.

Measurements and modelling indicate that since March 2024, the volume of magma required to trigger a magma intrusion or eruption has increased. The amount of magma that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi between eruptions since that time has ranged between 17 and 23 million cubic metres. Since the last eruption in July, just over 18 million cubic metres of magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi.

Seismic activity remains low
Low seismic activity continues to be recorded in the Sundhnúkur area. Only five earthquakes have been detected over the past two weeks, the largest with a magnitude of 1.9, located between Þorbjörn and Hagafell on December 17th.

Hazard assessment unchanged
The Icelandic Met Office's hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 6 January. The IMO continues to closely monitor developments and will update the assessment if activity changes.

Visit: https://en.vedur.is/ for full report

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Volcanic Safety Notice

Volcanoes are powerful and unpredictable. Always follow official guidance and respect restricted areas. Stay on marked trails, keep a safe distance, and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions. Access may be restricted at any time for your safety. Learn how to stay safe during small, medium, and large eruptions by reading the full Volcanic Safety Advice for Tourists here: https://afar.tv/safety.php (based on information provided by ICE-SAR).

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How You Can Help

Help the people displaced at Grindavík (Red Cross): https://www.raudikrossinn.is/english
Give to the Iceland Search and Rescue: https://www.icesar.com/en/support/don...

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Thanks!

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Sources and Resources

Iceland Met Office (https://en.vedur.is/) - data, cameras, news
Iceland Civil Protection and Emergency Management (https://island.is/en/civil-protection) - cameras
Iceland Search and Rescue (https://www.icesar.com/ https://afar.tv/safety.php) - Volcano Safety for Tourists
Windy.com (https://www.windy.com/) - so2 and wind data and maps
RUV (https://www.ruv.is/english) - News
MBL (https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/) - News
VISIR (https://www.visir.is/) - News
Visit Iceland (https://www.visiticeland.com/) - Tourism Info
Lava Centre (https://lavacentre.is/) - Volcano Info
Smithsonian Institute (https://volcano.si.edu/) - Volcanic activity
Google Earth (https://earth.google.com/web/) - maps
USGS (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/)- earthquake data and activity reports
Smithsonian Institute (https://volcano.si.edu/) - Volcanic activity
RaspberryShake.org (https://raspberryshake.org/) - earthquake activity.
VolcanoDiscovery.com (https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/) - Research

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