New Data Shows Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now More Likely to Hit the Moon

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In late 2024, astronomers detected a fast-moving object entering our part of the solar system. Named 2024 YR4, it quickly landed on NASA’s watchlist due to a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth by 2032—the highest recorded impact risk for an asteroid its size.

But by early 2025, more observations reduced that risk to just 0.00078%. Earth was safe. However, the Moon might not be. Scientists now estimate a 3.8% chance that YR4 could strike the lunar surface in 2032. While still a low probability, it’s significantly higher than the risk to Earth.

What makes YR4 even more unusual is its shape and behavior. Most asteroids are irregular or potato-shaped, but YR4 is flat and disk-like—more like a hockey puck. It also spins rapidly, completing a full rotation every 20 minutes. For an object the size of a six-story building moving tens of thousands of miles per hour, that’s extreme.

This unique shape suggests it may have formed during a violent collision, breaking off from a larger parent body and reshaping under its own weak gravity. Its rotation also introduces uncertainty in its future path due to the Yarkovsky effect, where sunlight gradually alters an asteroid’s trajectory over time.

Spectral analysis shows that YR4 is likely an S-type asteroid, composed mainly of silicate minerals like quartz and olivine. While this composition is common, the combination of its shape, speed, and potential impact makes YR4 a rare and valuable subject of study.

A lunar impact would cause no harm to Earth but could offer scientists a natural experiment to study cratering, asteroid dynamics, and planetary defense strategies. YR4 is still under observation, and its trajectory will continue to be refined in the coming years.