EU CBAM on hold? _ Weekly review _ Week 2'2026

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Weekly Review — Week 2, 2026 | Fertilizers, Agriculture, Gas & Shipping

European fertilizer markets were shaken by news of a potential CBAM suspension and waiving of most-favoured-nation import tariffs. Buyers remain cautious, awaiting official guidance from the European Commission.

Key highlights of the week:

• CBAM: suspension rumours puzzled European buyers and slowed buying activity even more.
• Urea: Indian tender outcome suggests nitrogen prices found a floor in December. Global urea supply is tightening amid early US purchases, Iranian outages until mid-February, and reduced Russian exports due to domestic sales and ongoing drone attacks on fertilizer plants.
• Ammonium sulphate: standard and granular grades traded at similar levels in China, while global demand remained slow.
• Ammonium nitrate: demand stayed subdued due to CBAM uncertainty in Europe and off-season in Brazil.
• Ammonia: prices were stable; supply East of Suez remained tight, while US Gulf Coast Ammonia and Woodside Beaumont plants added supply West of Suez.
• Phosphates: prices appear to have bottomed, but affordability remains a major challenge in 2026.
• Natural gas: European prices stayed relatively low amid warm weather and steady supply; US prices also dropped.
• Agricultural commodities: futures stayed elevated, market is awaiting January USDA report for guidance.
• Shipping: container rates increased sharply at all routes, while bulk shipping activity was subdued after holidays break.

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