Critical Minerals, Conflict, and the U.S.-Ukraine Partnership | CSIS 2025 GDF

Ukraine’s mineral wealth could reach $11 trillion, with over 8,000 confirmed mineral deposits consisting of 117 of the 120 most-used minerals in the world. The market for these critical minerals, essential for industries such as batteries, energy and defense, is growing rapidly, with projections to double by 2030 and possibly triple by 2040. Ukraine boasts three percent of the world’s lithium resources, essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy systems; seven percent of the world’s titanium; nearly 20 percent of the world’s graphite reserves, used for steelmaking, aerospace, and defense technologies; and Europe's largest uranium reserves, vital for nuclear power and weapons. With China currently holding the vast majority of the world’s rare earth element processes, these deposits, and the opportunities they present, are of strategic importance for Ukraine, the United States, and our Western allies.
Despite the potential of this underground treasure trove, Ukraine’s ability to access them is limited. Russia currently controls approximately 40 percent of Ukraine’s metal reserves and 20 percent of its total mineral reserves, and many of the deposits still under Ukrainian control are along the front lines of the ongoing conflict. As the United States and Ukraine seek to forge a “minerals deal” to encourage continued U.S. support in the war and to encourage U.S. private sector investment going forward, understanding the security, regulatory, and financing barriers will be key.
This 2025 GDF panel seeks to outline the opportunities and challenges that the mining sector in Ukraine faces, as well as the potential role of the United States in developing this sector going forward.
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