Which Minor League Stats Actually Predict MLB Success?

Few sports carry as much prospect uncertainty as baseball. In this video, I analyze historical minor league data to identify which statistics are most predictive of success at the major league level—and which are just noise.

I break down the relationship between Double-A and Triple-A performance and future MLB outcomes, examining why traditional stats like batting average often mislead us, while underlying traits like strikeout rate, walk rate, and Statcast quality-of-contact metrics provide the clearest signal of MLB readiness.

Finally, I apply these findings to a handful of under-the-radar minor leaguers who aren’t currently viewed as top prospects, but who I believe have a real chance to either rise up prospect rankings or eventually carve out a role in the majors.

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