Big Folds On The Bubble? More Aggro At The FT? Let's Find Out (Real Coaching Session)

In this coaching session, we discussed the fundamental differences between bubble and final table ICM, and looked into some key strategies for different phases of a tournament. We compare risk premiums, show how ranges and sizings shift, and debunk overreliance on future-game.
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Timestamps:
00:52 Plan: study ICM where it’s most extreme, then taper
01:53 Bubble ICM vs FT ICM
04:10 Symmetric stacks
05:19 Bubble with even stacks
06:21 Uneven example we’ll mirror on bubble and FT (25/37/19 etc.)
06:55 FT: second vs chip leader
08:01 Why at FTs chip-leader chips are “worth less” than short-stack chips
10:14 Bubble sims treat other tables as static
11:23 Strategy template
13:38 Surprising bubble numbers
14:12 Caution on FGS: often vibe-y and position-window dependent
18:17 When FGS can matter a bit
21:00 “Future edge” is table-local
23:06 Focus skill: get good at premiums first; adapt occasionally
24:05 Preflop: UTG1 vs CL — bubble opens wider; FT opens tighter
25:15 CL BB defense: much tighter at FT, much wider on bubble → very different 3-bet mixes
26:20 Chip leader 3-bets: polar/blocked at FT; near chip-EV aggression on bubble
27:19 Shortest stack on button
28:27 Middle stack hijack
29:32 Call-offs widen on bubble (e.g., TT/AQs) vs FT
31:05 UTG1 call-off: tighter at FT; slightly wider on bubble
32:04 CL BB preflop strategy: jams exist on bubble, not at FT
33:06 UTG vs CL 3-bet response: more flats on bubble; more jams/clickbacks FT
34:07 Postflop UTG vs BB, K♣Q♠2♦: FT can near range-bet; bubble mixes more checks
36:16 Reason: range composition and equity realization shift with premiums
39:01 Q-7-6: both check more; FT sometimes rips; bubble uses smaller bets more
41:10 Same sizes view: FT bets more than bubble because villain’s premium is higher at FT
42:10 Low boards (7-6-4): bubble BB can donk tons (risk advantage); FT donks less
45:21 Population note: recs overfold and overraise vs donks → exploit accordingly
49:13 Deeper FT example (avg 30bb): cutoff vs lowjack — extremely polar 3-bets at FT
50:46 Bubble: massively wider value 3-bets and flats; pairs extend lower
52:17 FT postflop: opener high premium → lots of range checks
54:12 Rule of thumb: pressure scales with the gap between your premium vs theirs
55:18 “What if we give CL tons more chips?”

Key takeaways:
• Risk premium is about chip share, not blind level. Halve/double blinds and premiums don’t change.
• Bubble vs FT pressure targets are different: bubble punishes shorts; FT clamps middles.
• Chip-leader’s chips are “cheap” at FTs; busting/cutting shorts moves real EV.
• Bubble sims assume other tables are static → less EV swing when you win chips.
• Preflop shifts: chip leader is polar/blocked at FT, closer to chip-EV at bubble; opens widen on bubble; call-offs widen behind wider opens.
• Postflop shifts: FT can range-bet more top-heavy boards when BB realization is suppressed; bubble shows more checking from opener and more donk/probe from BB on low/connected textures.


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