The Northeast Tornado Outbreak of May 31, 1985: A Case Study

On May 31, 1985, the most significant tornado outbreak to ever strike Southern Ontario and the Northeast US took place. 44 tornadoes occurred, well over half of which were strong to violent, including the infamous Niles-Wheatland F5 and many others. In this video, we break down the meteorology behind the May 31, 1985 outbreak and discuss some reasons why this outbreak was so potent, especially for the region.

Thumbnail images by Mike Zahurak and NWS Cleveland.

Big thank you to Brian Bernard for running and allowing me to use his WRF model simulation of the May 31, 1985 outbreak. Please visit his website for more case studies at https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/

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Chapters:

0:00 Introduction
1:02 Overview of notable tornadoes
4:59 Storm Chaser Coaching ad
5:48 Meteorological breakdown begins
7:53 500mb jet translation speed analysis (OMEGA)
15:13 Surface analysis
24:11 Sounding analysis
30:31 Role of the elevated mixed layer
44:00 Radar and satellite analysis
50:32 Wrap-up

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Resources:

NWS Cleveland event page: https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_198...

NWS State College event page: https://www.weather.gov/ctp/tornadoou...

NWS story map on the event: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/...

US Tornadoes article on the event: https://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/05/3...

SPC's Violent Tornado Webpage: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbre...

Brian Bernard's WRF model simulation of the event: https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case...

"The OMEGA Project" paper by Broyles et al. - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications...

Andrews et al. (2024): "Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer over the Contiguous United States and Northern Mexico Using ERA5: 1979–2021" - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...

Banacos and Ekster (2010): "The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States" - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...

Farrell, Jr. (1988): "The role of a lid in the 31 May 1985 tornado outbreak" - https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA1...

Footage of the Niles-Wheatland F5 was found at the following sources:
   • Niles - Wheatland F5 Tornado 5-31-1985  
   • 1985: A Tornado Goes Through the Neighborh...