Podcast ep20: Nate Silver / Poker as a Controlled Addiction

Nate Silver joins Jonathan Jaffe for a wide-ranging conversation built around themes from Nate’s new book, On the Edge, and his year focused on tournament poker. They dig into the emotional tradeoffs of being your own boss, the balance between optionality and focus, and how quantifiable feedback can sometimes create false signals of progress. They also talk about forecasting, betting markets, and how poker players approach risk and uncertainty. The discussion touches on GTO vs. exploit play, population mistakes, and the difference between River thinkers and Village thinkers—two mindsets Nate explores throughout the book.

----

Tournament Savagery is a complete masterclass from Nick Petrangelo and Daniel Dvoress, covering ICM, final tables, blind vs blind, and postflop play across every stage of the tournament.
🎯 See More Details → https://bit.ly/4hrJwvt
📈 Subscribe for more high-level strategy content
🔍 Find Out More at GTOLAB.com

----

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and Fanboying
01:21 Meeting Nate in the Bahamas
08:53 Living in the Simulation
11:19 River vs Village Thinking
16:46 SBF, FTX, and Michael Lewis’s Take
25:04 Becoming the Martha Stewart of Data?
29:34 Forecasting, Poker, and Being Wrong
40:22 Toughest Interview for the Book
46:13 Forecasting vs Poker: Knowing When to Fire
49:25 The Pressure of Being Your Own Boss
52:15 GTO vs Exploit: Where the Real EV Lives
56:10 Sandbox Learning and Finding Leaks
59:00 Gell-Mann Amnesia and Poker Authority
1:06:33 Table Image, Recognition, and Player Perception
1:11:30 Betting Against the Market on Election Night
1:15:12 What Counts as Actually Working
1:20:14 Poker as a Controlled Addiction
1:31:40 Quotes and Discussion EV in VC
1:34:10 Nate’s Three Recommendations