How do seasonal forecasts work? | Up in the air | Met Office | Learn About Weather

When the Met Office publish a three-month-outlook, it can attract a lot of attention. But second-hand reports of this outlook can oversimplify its content. In reality, a single outcome is not predicted. Different scenarios – wet, dry, warm, cold – are given different likelihoods. Why can't the Met Office say for certain what kind of weather a particular season will bring and why are probabilities given instead? Find out more in this video on seasonal forecasting.

Written and presented by Aidan McGivern
Animation by Drive Creative Studio Ltd

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