Predictions, Old & New! | OT After Hours - An OT Security Podcast | Rockwell SecureOT

In this episode of OT After Hours, Ken Kully (Systems Support Lead for Rockwell SecureOT), sits down with Natalie Kalinowski (Network & Cybersecurity Specialist), Lance Lamont (Special Projects & Protocols Team Lead), Zach Woltjer (Technical Account Manager), and Rick Herzing (Systems Support Analyst).

The team reviews last year's predictions for 2025 in industrial cybersecurity, confirming that most came true and discussing their impact on hybrid workforces, regulatory compliance, AI integration, dynamic detection, zero trust, legacy device security, monitoring, and third-party risks. They then discuss emerging cybersecurity threats and trends for 2026, focusing on AI-driven attacks, deep fakes, mandatory MFA, compliance enforcement, insurance-driven resilience, and ongoing supply chain risks.

2025 Predictions Reviewed

Hybrid Workforce Risks: TRUE. The expansion of hybrid workforces has increased device risks, with companies adopting solutions like VPNs, MFA, and endpoint protection to mitigate new attack vectors.
Regulatory Compliance Challenges: PARTIALLY TRUE. The vagueness of some regulations, the struggle for end users to translate them into actionable metrics, and the slow pace of regulatory change, leave much to be desired.
AI Integration in Cybersecurity: TRUE. There has been growing use of AI in cybersecurity products. The SecureOT research team has found AI to be highly confident but only moderately accurate, underscoring the importance of human oversight.
Dynamic Detection and Zero Trust: TRUE. The shift from signature-based detection to dynamic methods due to adaptive malware, has been ongoing for years. Zero trust policies have become more prevalent.
Legacy Device Security and Obsolescence Planning: TRUE. The persistent challenge of securing legacy devices in industrial environments continues unabated.
Monitoring and Third-Party Risks: PARTIALLY TRUE. Combining passive and active monitoring tools is not on track to become a standard in OT cybersecurity. But there is growing concern over third-party risks and the mitigation thereof, especially with new compliance requirements like the Cyber Resiliency Act.

Predictions and Trends for 2026:

AI-Driven Cyber Attacks: We can expect to see more end-to-end AI cyber attacks. There is potential for increased automation and sophistication, including lateral movement into OT environments.
Deep Fakes and Social Engineering: We can expect to see an expansion in the ongoing threat posed by deep fakes and phishing, given the growing ease of generating convincing audio and images.
Mandatory MFA and Compliance Enforcement: We are unlikely to see truly mandatory MFA adoption; that legal compliance and fines may well be necessary for widespread adoption, especially in OT.
Insurance-Driven Cyber Resilience: Insurers may drive faster adoption of cyber hygiene practices by requiring verified resilience for coverage. Some companies may choose pay fines instead.
Supply Chain and Open Source Risks: The threat of supply chain infections, especially with increased AI-generated code contributions, will grow in the year to come. Organizations should focus on retaining skilled software engineers to validate code.

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