George Yeo: This Is Bigger Than I Thought...

In this sweeping and deeply reflective analysis, George Yeo argues that the United States has entered an emotionally charged phase of politics in which China is no longer seriously understood but reflexively demonized. He explains how America’s decentralized political system, driven by electoral incentives and mass sentiment, encourages moral panics that substitute emotion for knowledge. The result is policy built on illusion rather than strategy, from punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to the belief that China can be contained or pulled down without cost. Yeo warns that history offers a clear precedent: when great powers retreat behind walls, they weaken themselves long before their rivals do.

The conversation widens to the broader global transition now underway. Ukraine, Gaza, sanctions warfare, and Europe’s internal fractures are not isolated crises but interconnected symptoms of a system under strain. Yeo examines China’s civilizational instinct for defensiveness, its preference for internal cohesion, and its lack of desire to act as a global hegemon, contrasting this sharply with American assumptions about power projection and dominance. At the same time, he challenges market pessimism toward Asia, insisting that fundamentals remain intact and that China and Southeast Asia will continue to account for a growing share of global growth despite geopolitical headwinds.

For Southeast Asia, the implications are existential. Yeo emphasizes that ASEAN unity is not rooted in sentiment but necessity, providing smaller states with strategic buffer and autonomy in an increasingly polarized world. He stresses that survival depends not only on diplomacy abroad but cohesion at home, where inequality, technological disruption, and social fragmentation pose moral as well as political risks. The years ahead, he concludes, will test whether societies can think long-term in an age of short-term politics, and whether realism, restraint, and balance can prevail over illusion.

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