Panel I: U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Global Conflict

Filmed during the ICAS 2025 Annual Conference.

MODERATOR: Liu Yawei (Senior Advisor on China, The Carter Center)

PANELISTS:
Michael SWAINE (Senior Fellow, East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
HUANG Jing (Distinguished Professor, Shanghai International Studies University)
Robert SUTTER (Professor of Practice, Elliott School, George Washington University)
YANG Li (Executive Director, Institute for China-Europe Studies)

The first panel of the ICAS 2025 Annual Conference featured four senior U.S. and Chinese academic and think tank specialists who spoke of the elements, and underlying drivers, of competition in Sino-American relations. There was a consensus among the panelists that the bilateral relationship continues to remain at a difficult juncture, notwithstanding the short-term stabilization afforded by the recent Xi-Trump leaders meeting in Busan, South Korea. The structural, ideological, economic and geopolitical dimensions of the challenge in relations remain unchanged. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has injected an added degree of instability and capriciousness to bilateral ties and to global order. On the one hand, President Trump is one of the most powerful presidents that we are witnessing in our lifetimes. On the other hand, the U.S. is suffering a major loss of global influence and a weakening of its alliance system, given Trump’s disrespect for international law and his tendency to treat allies and adversaries alike when it comes to tariffs and sanctions. The net effect has been to somewhat transform the nature of competition between the U.S. and China from being one featuring America and its allies versus China to being a head-to-head one. In this context, it was wondered aloud if Europe could play the role of a stabilizing third force, both in global affairs as well as in China-U.S. ties.

The Taiwan issue emerged in the discussion, as expected, as the number #1 flashpoint in U.S.- China relations. It is by far the only issue that could lead to the outbreak of a major war between Washington and Beijing, leading to incalculable human losses on all sides. As such, the onus was on both sides to tread cautiously. At this time though, the key pillars that have upheld the status quo on Taiwan – the credibility of Washington’s One China policy; the credibility of Beijing’s pledge of peaceful reunification; and the Taiwan authorities’ commitment not to rock the boat of political separation – are eroding. It is necessary therefore for the U.S. and China to invest in building-out civilian-led crisis management mechanisms so that any potential for escalation or spiral of overreaction can be contained at the senior political levels. In this regard, it was also proposed that Washington should weigh the pros and cons of transitioning to a Taiwan Strait policy that limits the military escalation possibilities while at the same time supporting the self-governing island’s political autonomy. The panel concluded with the insight that the largest challenges faced by both sides were internal. The political divisions in America run deep. The pursuit of rebalancing the Chinese economy on a sustainable new growth trajectory is equally challenging. Whichever side manages to get its house in order will, as such, enjoy a first-mover advantage within the dynamics of their mutually competitive relationship.