Global Public Opinion Polling Results — Trump and the world in 2026

How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world.

On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey, Russia, the US, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Europe now judge the balance of power. Is “America First” accelerating a shift towards a China-headed global order? Has multipolarity become a preference amongst middle powers? Have Europeans finally experienced a genuine geopolitical awakening? How can these trends help predict the foreign policy events of 2026, especially in the context of the US intervention in Venezuela?

Join Professor Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, co-authors of the upcoming report on the survey, for a frank discussion on what global publics now believe—and what Europe and governments can no longer afford to ignore.

Guests
Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies, University of Oxford
Ivan Krastev, Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
Mark Leonard, Director, ECFR

00:00 Introduction to the Report and Key Findings
02:09 Shifting Perceptions of the United States
04:51 China's Rising Influence
06:13 Europe's Changing Role in Global Politics
10:41 European Self-Perception and Future Outlook
12:20 Analysis of Global Reactions to U.S. Policies
19:43 What is to be Done: A New Kind of Internationalism
28:55 Rebuilding European Identity Amid Fragmentation
30:31 The Role of Hungary and Populism in Europe
34:21 Germany's Emerging Military Power
39:06 The State of American Soft Power
42:06 Defining the West: A New Perspective
46:03 Germany's Leadership Role in European Defense
52:22 Conclusion: Facing Global Challenges Together