Bootcamp #1 - Biggest Decision of All: Stocks vs. Bonds

Welcome to the inaugural session of our Bootcamp Series, “The Biggest Decision of All: Stocks vs. Bonds.” I’m your host, Paul Merriman. Today, we tackle what I consider the most pivotal choice every investor must make—selecting between stocks and bonds. Whether you're embarking on your financial journey or aiming to enhance your investment approach, this episode provides the foundational knowledge you need.

We will clarify the fundamental differences between stocks and bonds, examine their contributions to wealth accumulation and risk management, and present nearly a century’s worth of data to illustrate why this decision significantly impacts your financial future. Through concrete numbers and historical case studies, we will simplify concepts such as risk, volatility, and compounding. You’ll discover how factors like your age, risk tolerance, and investment timeline influence the optimal portfolio composition for you.

Additionally, we will explore the principles of diversification—not merely holding numerous stocks, but strategically balancing stocks and bonds to meet your objectives. For those ready to advance, I will introduce how minor adjustments in your portfolio can lead to substantial long-term benefits.

If you seek to understand the rationale behind effective investing and desire practical steps to secure your financial future and that of the generations to come, you’re in the right place. Let’s begin this series with insights that will inform your investment decisions for years to come.


Chapters:
00:00 - "Investment Boot Camp Introduction"
05:16 - Investment Risks: Stocks vs. Bonds
12:58 - Bonds vs. Market Volatility
18:47 - Bond Market Volatility Insights
26:26 - "Growth vs. Value Investing Dynamics"
28:16 - Long-Term Benefits of Stock Market
33:46 - "Investment Outcome Narrowing Over Time"
39:55 - Long-Term Investing and Short-Term Impact
46:20 - Investor Overconfidence in 90s Markets
52:47 - S&P 500's Unexpected Outperformance
01:00:13 - "Small Cap vs. S&P Returns"
01:03:19 - "Four Fund Strategy Outperforms S&P"
01:11:36 - "Professional Advice and Support Options"


Quotes:
"The sky’s the limit with stocks—not because you have to predict the future, but because you have the courage to invest for it."- Paul Merriman

"If you can do this right from day one, you’re sitting in the catbird seat. That’s the power of time and compounding."- Paul Merriman

"It isn’t always about how much money you make—sometimes it’s about how much money you don’t lose, and learning to stay the course will define your success."- Paul Merriman

"The longer you invest, the more predictable and narrow your outcome becomes. That’s the real gift of patience and discipline."- Paul Merriman


Key Takeaways:
The Crucial First Step: Stocks vs. Bonds
Bonds: The Safety Net with Limited Growth
Stocks: The Engine for Long-Term Growth
Diversification: Your Best Friend
The Power of Time and Compounding
The Long View Triumphs Over the Short Term
Historical Evidence: Not a Guarantee, But a Guide
Take the Bootcamp Journey

Connect with Paul Merriman:
Website: https://www.paulmerriman.com/
Email: [email protected]


Here is a⁠ link⁠ to the pdf of the set of slides Paul uses in the presentation - https://bit.ly/43atqmb.  The presentation includes the ⁠updated 1, 15 and 40 year returns tables ⁠ - https://bit.ly/4kfuiMA along with the  ⁠quilt charts for the 1928 to 2024 period⁠ - https://bit.ly/4khVTNe

Our thanks to  Daryl Bahls who has put together most of the tables in the Bootcamp series.

If you have questions please send them to ⁠[email protected]⁠.  Please put Bootcamp #1 in the subject line.