AGI is Still 30 Years Away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth (with the economy literally doubling every 1 or 2 years).

This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent interview with Scott and Daniel.

Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of Mechanize (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at Epoch AI.

Read the transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/68ee...

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) - AGI will take another 3 decades
(00:23:01) - Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence
(00:45:38) - Intelligence explosion
(01:01:31) - Ege & Tamay's story
(01:06:58) - Explosive economic growth
(01:33:34) - Will there be a separate AI economy?
(01:47:42) - Can we predictably influence the future?
(02:20:22) - Arms race dynamic
(02:30:22) - Is superintelligence a real thing?
(02:36:19) - Reasons not to expect explosive growth
(02:49:34) - Fully automated firms
(02:55:17) - Will central planning work?