Episode 449: A Transition, Personal Finance Is Still Finance, And Fun With Mary And Coaching Stuff

In this episode we answer emails from Nick, No Name, and Nathan.  We discuss transitioning at 70% to FI, the inherent problems with a lot of psychology-based and convenience-based finance media and personal finance that fails to do the finance part first, Mary's amusement with Frank's ego (don't encourage him), and financial coaching.

And we get to hear from Abby at the Father McKenna Center.

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center (https://fathermckennacenter.org/how-y...)

Shannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts (https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/04/1...)

Video Interview of Abby:  The Church's View on Homelessness Amid Trump’s Removal Plan in D.C. | EWTN News Nightly (   • Видео  )

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Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

When should you transition from a high-equity portfolio to a risk parity approach? This question, posed by a listener at 70% of their FIRE number, launches us into an exploration of timing one of the most critical shifts in an investor's journey.

The ideal transition point typically comes at 80% of your target number and about five years from your goal. The logic is straightforward: you want to secure your gains while your portfolio sits near all-time highs, shifting from aggressive growth to stability as you approach financial independence. Your decision should weigh how much you'll continue contributing and your personal risk tolerance.

This episode also pulls back the curtain on the troubling state of financial media. Too many "experts" repeat outdated concepts like the "100 minus your age" rule—a relic from the 1990s with no empirical backing. We explore how financial advice has become psychologically driven rather than financially optimized, with advisors choosing strategies that are easy to explain rather than those that deliver optimal results.

As Upton Sinclair observed, "It's difficult to get a person to understand something when their salary depends on them not understanding it." This explains why many advisors promote bucket strategies and time segmentation plans despite their inefficiency—they're selling what clients can understand, not what best serves their financial futures.

The DIY investor's advantage is clear: we can focus on data first and psychology second. Your financial behaviors should align with your goals—if you want to spend more in retirement, you need a portfolio designed for that purpose, not just psychological tricks to feel comfortable underspending.

Want to make better financial decisions? Stop trying to predict the future. Adopt a decade-long perspective instead of obsessing over current conditions. Remember that rebalancing works over time due to Shannon's Demon—the mathematical reality that regularly rebalanced diverse assets outperform in the long run.


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