🚨 How long does the head of the snake in Tehran have left? With Prof. Kobi Michael

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In this episode, I hosted Prof. Kobi Michael, a senior research fellow at the INSS and Misgav Institute, for a deep dive into the two major strategic theaters of Gaza and Iran.

Prof. Michael argued that the current unrest in Iran is fundamentally different from past protests. He identified three crucial factors:

Unprecedented Domestic Pressure: The intensity of the protests, driven by economic collapse and regime brutality, has reached levels not seen since 2009. The regime has lost the people.

Regime Uncertainty: The leadership in Tehran is facing extreme uncertainty due to the coordination between the US and Israel. The "Rising Lion" operation in June 2025 exposed Iran's military weaknesses, and the current US military buildup is compounding its fears.

Trump's Revisionist Vision: President Trump is operating as a revisionist leader, seeking to reshape the global order. He views toppling the Iranian regime and disarming Hamas as the key to unlocking a new architecture that extends the Abraham Accords to nations as far-flung as Indonesia and Pakistan, thereby countering China.

The "Grand Bargain": Gaza for Iran?

Prof. Michael suggested that Prime Minister Netanyahu may have agreed to a grand bargain with Trump: Israel makes concessions on the Gaza diplomatic track for now, in exchange for full US support in the goal of toppling the Iranian regime. Netanyahu likely calculates that once the "head of the snake" (Iran) is cut off, its proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) will wither, and the IDF will eventually be called back in to finish the job in Gaza anyway when the diplomatic initiatives inevitably fail.

Gaza

Prof. Michael noted that no international force will disarm Hamas. He believes Trump understands that his grand vision for the Middle East cannot proceed without the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities. Therefore, the current diplomatic maneuvers may be a prelude to an eventual green light for the IDF to complete the mission of demilitarizing the Strip.

Syria: An Enigma

On Syria, Prof. Michael warned that the country remains fragmented and unstable. The new leadership under a-Sharaa relies on undisciplined jihadist fighters, and the competition between Turkey, the Gulf states, and Russia complicates any easy path to stability. He specifically highlighted Turkey's malign influence, viewing its desire for boots on the ground in Gaza and Syria as a strategy to pressure Israel and expand its neo-Ottoman hegemony.